The discussion around John Maynard Keynes's famously unrealized prediction of a 15-hour work week has sparked intense debate about the relationship between productivity, land economics, and modern work culture. While technological advances have dramatically increased productivity since Keynes's 1930 prediction, the community highlights several complex economic factors that prevented his vision from becoming reality.
Historical Work Week Comparison:
- 1950: 38 hours/week (US average)
- Current: 34 hours/week (US average)
- Keynes's Prediction: 15 hours/week
The Land Value Paradox
One of the most compelling insights from the community discussion centers on the paradoxical relationship between productivity and land values. As productivity in an area increases, so does the cost of land, creating a self-perpetuating cycle that prevents workers from realizing the full benefits of productivity gains. This phenomenon is particularly evident in high-productivity regions like tech hubs, where even substantial salaries can barely cover basic living expenses.
The reason a meal is so expensive in New York City as compared to Oklahoma City isn't shipping costs. It's the rent of the restaurant and then the higher wages needed to pay everyone in the restaurant due to their elevated rent needs.
The Competition Trap
Modern economic structures have created a complex web of competition that extends beyond simple productivity. Workers find themselves caught in what many describe as a race to the bottom, where working fewer hours could mean losing competitive advantage in the job market. This is compounded by the prevalent requirement for dual-income households, effectively doubling the work hours needed to maintain a middle-class lifestyle compared to previous generations.
The Flexibility Challenge
The rigid structure of modern employment presents another significant barrier to reduced working hours. Many community members point out that while they would willingly accept proportionally reduced pay for shorter hours, most employers still insist on traditional full-time arrangements. This inflexibility in work arrangements forces many skilled professionals into all-or-nothing employment situations, limiting their ability to choose reduced hours.
The Standard of Living Factor
An important perspective emerged regarding the definition of acceptable living standards. While Keynes's prediction might be technically achievable if we were willing to accept 1930s living standards, modern expectations and requirements have evolved significantly. This includes not just basic necessities but also access to technology, healthcare, and educational opportunities that simply didn't exist in Keynes's time.
In conclusion, while productivity gains could theoretically support shorter working hours, the complex interplay of land economics, competitive pressures, and evolving living standards has created a system that continues to demand long working hours from most participants. The solution may require fundamental changes to our economic structures, particularly in how we manage land value and distribute productivity gains.
Source Citations: Keynes Predicted We Would Be Working 15-Hour Weeks. Why Was He So Wrong?