As Google faces mounting legal pressure following two major antitrust defeats, industry experts are beginning to speculate about potential remedies that could reshape the tech giant's business model. Among the most significant possibilities is the forced divestiture of Chrome, Google's dominant web browser that serves as a crucial gateway to its search business.
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| DuckDuckGo's CEO estimates Chrome could be worth $50 billion, hinting at its potential impact on the tech landscape |
The $50 Billion Browser
DuckDuckGo CEO Gabriel Weinberg offered a striking valuation estimate during recent court testimony, suggesting that Google's Chrome browser could be worth approximately $50 billion if regulators force its sale. This back-of-the-envelope calculation significantly exceeds previous estimates, including Bloomberg analyst Mandeep Singh's $20 billion valuation from last November. Weinberg acknowledged that such a price tag would put Chrome well beyond DuckDuckGo's purchasing power, though he confirmed his company would be interested in acquiring the browser if cost weren't a barrier.
Mounting Legal Challenges
Google now faces a critical juncture following two significant antitrust defeats. In the first case, a court determined that Google illegally maintained its search monopoly through default placement deals, particularly with Apple. The second, more recent defeat found that Google substantially harmed publishers and users through its advertising technology monopoly. Both cases have now entered the remedies phase, where judges will determine appropriate penalties.
Structural Remedies on the Table
The Department of Justice is pursuing aggressive structural remedies in both cases. For the search monopoly case, the government has requested that Google sell off Chrome and make its search data more accessible to competitors. In the advertising technology case, the DOJ is likely to seek divestiture of portions of Google's ad tech system. These potential breakups represent some of the most significant antitrust actions since the government's case against Microsoft decades ago.
Interest from Multiple Players
Chrome's potential availability has attracted attention beyond DuckDuckGo. Executives from AI companies OpenAI and Perplexity have also testified about their interest in acquiring the browser if it were put up for sale. Nick Turley, Head of Product at OpenAI, suggested that integrating Chrome with OpenAI's technology could create a more seamless AI-first experience for users. He also revealed that OpenAI had previously approached Google about powering ChatGPT with Google's search API but was declined last August.
The Architect Behind the Cases
Jonathan Kanter, the former assistant attorney general for antitrust under the Biden administration, was the architect of both successful cases against Google. Now in private practice, Kanter has become more outspoken about his belief that Google should indeed be broken up. He describes the antitrust division he built as the world's best antitrust boutique firm inside the Department of Justice, assembling elite trial lawyers and antitrust experts who proved capable of taking on tech giants.
Political Realignment Around Antitrust
The Google cases represent a rare area of bipartisan agreement in today's polarized political landscape. The search case was initially filed during the first Trump administration, pursued by the Biden Justice Department, and now continues under the second Trump administration. This unusual continuity reflects a broader political realignment around tech regulation, with some prominent figures in both parties supporting more aggressive action against dominant tech platforms.
Concerns About Enforcement Under New Administration
Despite this continuity, questions remain about how aggressively the current Department of Justice will pursue remedies against Google, especially given the close relationships some tech executives appear to have with the Trump administration. Kanter expressed hope that the antitrust division would maintain its independence and effectiveness but acknowledged concerns about the administration's approach to government agencies more broadly.
The Stakes for Publishers and the Open Web
The outcomes of these cases could have profound implications for publishers and the open web. Google's dominance in both search and advertising technology has been particularly damaging to news publishers, who have seen their revenue streams diminish as Google extracted increasing value from online advertising. Structural remedies could potentially revitalize the economics of publishing on the open web, though some skeptics question whether such interventions might come too late given the web's evolution toward AI-driven experiences.
Looking Forward
As these cases progress through the remedies phase and inevitable appeals, the tech industry faces years of uncertainty about Google's future structure. While Google has vowed to appeal both verdicts, the initial rulings represent significant victories for those advocating stronger antitrust enforcement in the tech sector. The ultimate resolution of these cases could reshape not just Google but the fundamental economics and competitive dynamics of the internet itself.